Invasive exotic plant species represent a major threat to the integrity of ecosystems. The acquisition of cartographic information on the dynamics of these species is a sustainable management tool. Among these species, Lantana camara L., known for its environmental and agronomic impacts, is currently reported in several localities in Côte d'Ivoire. The general objective of this study is to model the ecological niche of this species across the country.

To do this, 89 point occurrences and 19 current and future bioclimatic variables were collected to model the potential distribution of this species based on the RCP 8.5 scenario as part of the Hadgem2-ES climate model. This is 75% of the attendance data (67 points) used for model calibration and 25% (22 points) for testing.

At the end of the modeling carried out with the MaxEnt software, the areas adapted to the species are characterized by low temperatures and high rainfall., Under current climatic conditions, approximately 65,782.40 km², or 20% of the national territory, are suitable for the invasion of L. camara. The Azagny National Park, the Banco National Park and the Ehotile Islands Nature Reserve have distributions with a high probability of the presence of the species. By 2050, the climate predicts high temperatures and low rainfall in the future. The results show that by adapting to this new climatic distribution area, the area of proliferation of L. camara will increase to 78,036.05 km², or 24% of the national territory. An upward trend, with a rate of change of 18.6, was observed in the favorable areas of this zone.

To maintain the normal functioning of ecosystems and the sustainability of ecosystem services, the areas that have been identified as the most vulnerable to the invasion of L. camara must be the subject of strategies to combat this species.